U.S. Airlines Most Likely to Bump Passengers and Most Likely to Offer Passengers Benefits to Miss Their Flight [Data Study]

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic still ongoing, the number of total daily commercial U.S. flights has been slowly increasing since mid April as more and more people adjust to their new way of life and safety protocols improve. With more people traveling again and the holiday season approaching, we wanted to take a look and see which airlines are most likely to “bump” you involuntarily from your flight and which airlines are most likely to offer you benefits in order to voluntarily give up your seat. Here is what we found.

U.S. Airlines Most Likely To Bump Passengers Ranked

Rank	Airline	Involuntary DB’s	Enplaned Passengers	Bumps per 100k Passengers
1	Envoy Air	1,412	11,275,560	12.523
2	PSA Airlines	1,041	11,518,291	9.038
3	Republic Airways	445	11,809,268	3.768
4	Frontier Airlines	620	16,872,029	3.675
5	American Airlines	3,511	104,511,670	3.359
6	Mesa Airlines	220	10,345,895	2.126
7	Skywest Airlines	566	30,555,796	1.852
8	Spirit Airlines	251	24,734,296	1.015
9	Alaska Airlines	230	25,447,908	0.904
10	Southwest Airlines	805	118,214,511	0.681
11	JetBlue Airways	26	27,151,803	0.096
12	United Airlines	27	71,850,837	0.038
13	Allegiant Air	4	11,943,253	0.033
14	ExpressJet Airlines	1	4,255,588	0.023
15	Hawaiian Airlines	1	7,865,493	0.013
16	Delta Air Lines	3	107,673,778	0.003
17	Endeavor Air	0	10,999,610	0

Involuntary denied boardings occur when passengers who have a confirmed seat on a specific flight cannot be accommodated on that flight and are thus “bumped”. Passengers are usually bumped due to tickets being oversold. Above we calculated the “bumps” per 100,000 passengers for various U.S. airlines.

Regional airlines are significantly more likely to bump passengers than mainline airlines. For example, Envoy Air is 3.4x more likely to bump a passenger than the closest mainline airline, Frontier. PSA Airlines is 2.5x more likely to bump a passenger than Frontier.

–Frontier Airlines and American Airlines are more than 3x more likely to bump a passenger than all other mainline airlines. Frontier Airlines bumps 3.675 people per 100,000 passengers while American Airlines will bump 3.359 people per 100,000 passengers. This is significantly higher than the bumps per 100,000 passengers of Spirit Airlines (1.015), Alaska Airlines (0.904), Southwest Airlines (0.681), JetBlue Airways (0.096), United Airlines (0.038), Allegiant Air (0.033), Hawaiian Airlines (0.013) and Delta Airlines (0.003). Frontier is 1,225x more likely to bump a passenger than Delta and American Airlines is 1,120x more likely to bump a passenger than Delta!

-American Airlines and American Airlines subsidiaries make up 3 of the top 5 airlines most likely to bump a passenger. These airlines include #1 Envoy Air (12.523 bumps per 100,000 passengers), #2 PSA Airlines (9.038 bumps per 100,000 passengers) and #5 American Airlines (3.359 people per 100,000 passengers)

-Allegiant Air is by far the least likely budget airline to bump a passenger at only 0.033 bumps per 100,000 passengers. This is significantly lower than the bumps per 100,000 passengers of Frontier Airlines (3.675), Spirit Airlines (1.015), Southwest Airlines (0.681) and JetBlue Airways (0.096).

-Delta Air Lines is the least likely mainline airline to bump a passenger having only bumped 3 out of 107,673,778 passengers between Q3 2019 and Q2 2020. The only airline with fewer bumps than Delta during this period was Endeavor Air which Delta owns.

Has COVID-19 Changed the Airlines Most Likely to Bump Passengers?

Rank	Airline	Involuntary DB’s	Enplaned Passengers	Bumps per 100k Passengers
1	Frontier Airlines	45	690,113	6.521
2	PSA Airlines	39	852,181	4.576
3	Republic Airways	21	592,187	3.546
4	Envoy Air	26	847,305	3.069
5	Mesa Airlines	12	536,745	2.238
6	SkyWest Airlines	36	1,642,807	2.191
7	American Airlines	85	5,369,982	1.583
8	Southwest Airlines	110	7,058,890	1.558
9	Spirit Airlines	2	871,869	0.229
10	ExpressJet Airlines	0	115,481	0
11	Hawaiian Airlines	0	176,278	0
12	Endeavor Air	0	404,077	0
13	JetBlue Airways	0	583,894	0
14	Alaska Airlines	0	916,543	0
15	Allegiant Air	0	1,296,542	0
16	United Airlines	0	1,333,318	0
17	Delta Air Lines	0	2,956,649	0

Based on the Q2 2020 analysis above, the airlines most likely to bump passengers did change a bit during COVID.

-Frontier Airlines is twice as likely to bump a passenger when comparing Q2 2020 to the blended aggregate data of Q3 2019 – Q2 2020. Frontier had 6.521 bumps per 100,000 passengers during Q2 2020 versus 3.675 bumps per 100,000 passengers from Q3 2019 – Q2 2020.

-Delta and Allegiant still are the least likely mainline and budget airlines to bump a passenger. During Q2 2020, both Delta and Allegiant bumped zero passengers.

-American Airlines Group’s trio of airlines improved their bumps per 100,000 passengers drastically in Q2 2020 versus Q3 2019 – Q2 2020. American Airlines went from 3.359 to 1.583 bumps per 100,000 passengers. Envoy Air went from 12.523 to 3.069 bumps per 100,000 passengers. And, PSA Airlines went from 9.038 to 4.576 bumps per 100,000 passengers.

U.S. Airlines Most Likely to Offer Passengers Benefits to Miss Their Flight Ranked

A voluntary denied boarding occurs when a passenger chooses not to fly in exchange for some sort of airline benefits. These benefits normally include some variation of travel credits, hotel accommodations and food vouchers. Airlines are keen to entice passengers to voluntarily leave oversold flights with compensation packages. They do this in order to avoid potentially unwanted press and to avoid paying certain involuntarily bumped passengers cash guaranteed by U.S. Law. Above we calculated the voluntary denied boardings per 100,000 passengers for various U.S. Airlines.

Key Takaways:

-Regional airlines are significantly more likely to offer benefits to passengers to miss their flight. Six of the top seven airlines most likely to offer benefits for passengers to voluntarily miss their flight are regional airlines, including ExpressJet which ceased operations on September 30.

-Delta Air Lines is the major airline most likely to offer passengers benefits to miss their flight. Between Q3 2019 and Q2 2020, Delta Air Lines convinced 68,833 passengers to voluntarily give up their seats. This is 63.927 voluntary denied boardings per 100,000 passengers. The success of Delta’s competitive bidding for voluntary denied boardings is one of the reasons it has been able to almost completely eliminate involuntary denied boardings.

-Spirit Airlines is the budget airline most likely to offer benefits to passengers to miss their flight. Spirit Airlines had 56.181 voluntary denied boardings between Q3 2019 – Q2 2020, which is 4x more than the next budget airliner Frontier.

Has COVID-19 Changed the Airlines Most Likely to Offer Passengers Benefits to Miss Their Flight?

Rank	Airline	Voluntary DB’s	Enplaned Passengers	Voluntary DB’s per 100k Passengers
1	Endeavor Air	277	404,077	68.551
2	Delta Air Lines	1,546	2,956,649	52.289
3	SkyWest Airlines	464	1,642,807	28.244
4	PSA Airlines	226	852,181	26.520
5	Frontier Airlines	170	690,113	24.634
6	Envoy Air	190	847,305	22.424
7	Mesa Airlines	95	536,745	17.699
8	Hawaiian Airlines	30	176,278	17.019
9	Southwest Airlines	1,108	7,058,890	15.697
10	Republic Airways	81	592,187	13.678
11	American Airlines	647	5,369,982	12.048
12	Spirit Airlines	80	871,869	9.176
13	JetBlue Airways	29	583,894	4.967
14	Alaska Airlines	43	916,543	4.692
15	ExpressJet Airlines	5	115,481	4.330
16	Allegiant Air	15	1,296,542	1.157
17	United Airlines	8	1,333,318	0.600

As with the involuntary denied boardings, the data for voluntary denied boardings has changed somewhat during COVID in Q2 2020 when compared to the blended data of Q3 2019 – Q2 2020.

-Delta Air Lines continued to offer benefits so passengers would voluntarily miss their flight at a much higher rate than all other major airlines. The only airline to offer benefits for voluntary denied boardings at a higher rate than Delta was Endeavor Air which Delta owns.

-During COVID in Q2 2020, Frontier Airlines became the budget airline most likely to offer compensation for a passenger to voluntarily miss their flight. The rate at which Frontier Airlines had voluntary denied boardings increased from 14.017 passengers per 100,000 in Q3 2019 – Q2 2020 to 24.634 during Q2 2020.

Conclusion

Flights being oversold will continue to be commonplace during COVID and long after COVID has come and gone.

The data for Q3 2019 – Q2 2020 suggests if you must make it somewhere on a flight, Delta Air Lines is your best bet to avoid being bumped. Delta Airlines was also deemed the second most trustworthy airline in our Flying & Accommodations COVID-19 Survey which makes it an all around great airline to fly.

We recommend choosing a major carrier over a regional carrier when possible as regional carrier’s have significantly higher rates of involuntary denied boardings.

Frontier Airlines is the major airline we recommend avoiding at all costs if you are worried about being bumped. It had the most bumps per 100,000 passengers from Q3 2019 – Q2 2020 and its rate of bumps nearly doubled in Q2 2020 during COVID.

American Airlines is the major non budget airline we would avoid if you are a passenger worried about being bumped.

Data Study Methodology

This U.S. Airlines Most Likely to Bump Passengers and Most Likely to Offer Passengers Benefits to Miss Their Flight Data Study was compiled using publicly available Air Travel Consumer Reports from the U.S. Department of Transportation. These Air Travel Consumer Reports display the number of both voluntary and involuntary denied boardings by quarter of all U.S. airlines with at least 0.5 percent of total domestic scheduled-service passenger revenues.

We analyzed the data in order to determine which airlines most frequently “bumped” passengers involuntarily and which airlines most frequently offered benefits to passengers to miss their flights voluntarily. All data currently released over the last 12 months (Q3 2019 – Q2 2020) was examined on a per 100,000 passengers basis. Q2 2020’s data was then analyzed and compared to the cumulative data in Q3 2019 – Q2 2020 to see what effect, if any, COVID-19 had on airlines’ denied boardings.

The data was collected and the results were analyzed by the post author, Eric Jones, who is a Mathematics and Statistics Professor at Rowan College South Jersey.

Featured Image via Pixabay